Edmonton’s Offensive Struggles: A Deep Dive into the Numbers and What It Means for Their Season
The Edmonton Oilers are facing a familiar yet alarming trend: underwhelming offensive performance at even strength. With a 9-7-4 record at the 20-game mark of the 2025-26 NHL season, the team is falling short of expectations. But here’s where it gets controversial: while slow starts aren’t new for Edmonton, this season’s struggles come with red flags that weren’t present in previous years. Most notably, their 5-on-5 offense has been abysmal, ranking a dismal 27th in the league with just 2.13 goals per 60 minutes. For a team boasting superstars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, this is nothing short of shocking.
The Numbers Don’t Lie—But Do They Tell the Whole Story?
To put things in perspective, the last time the Oilers scored below 2.15 goals per hour was during McDavid’s rookie season in 2015-16, when league-wide scoring was significantly lower. While some might point to the 2023-24 season, where Edmonton rebounded from a slow start to finish third, there’s a crucial difference: back then, their expected goals (xG) were among the league’s best, indicating bad luck rather than systemic issues. This season, however, their xG ranks 26th, suggesting they’re not just failing to score—they’re failing to create quality chances in the first place.
And this is the part most people miss: Edmonton’s struggles aren’t just about finishing games. With only four regulation wins in their first 20 games, they’re tied for the fewest in the NHL. While their 3-on-3 success is impressive, 5-on-5 performance remains a critical indicator of postseason potential. So, what’s going wrong?
Breaking Down the Stats: Where’s the Disconnect?
Let’s start with McDavid and Draisaitl. When paired at 5-on-5, they generate 3.25 goals per hour—solid, but a far cry from their past dominance, where they often eclipsed four goals per hour. Separately, Draisaitl thrives with 3.6 goals per hour without McDavid, but McDavid’s production drops to just 2.36 without his counterpart. This marks a concerning decline for McDavid, whose on-ice offense without Draisaitl has steadily fallen from 4.07 in 2023-24 to 2.97 in 2024-25 and now 2.36—his lowest since 2018-19.
A Bold Question: Is McDavid’s Decline a Bigger Issue Than We Think?
The bottom-six isn’t faring much better. After peaking in 2022-23 with 2.42 goals per 60 minutes without McDavid and Draisaitl, they’ve plummeted to a mere 1.12 goals per hour this season—worse than during the Peter Chiarelli era. Kris Knoblauch’s constant line shuffling likely hasn’t helped, as chemistry suffers when lines rarely play together for extended periods. Depth forwards like Andrew Mangiapane (-14 goal differential, six points in 20 games) and Trent Frederic (one point in 20 games) have been particularly underwhelming.
The Role of Defense—Or Lack Thereof
Another glaring issue? Edmonton’s defenders are taking an excessive 38% of their 5-on-5 shots, the highest in the league. This has contributed to a woeful high-danger chance differential, with the Oilers ranking second-last in high-danger chances per hour despite being 17th in shots. McDavid, who averaged over 18 high-danger chances per 60 without Draisaitl in 2023-24, is down to just 9.2 this season—a 50% drop. Could this be linked to lingering injuries, or is it a tactical misstep?
Reasons for Hope—Or Are We Just Clinging to Optimism?
It’s not all doom and gloom. McDavid has shown signs of life with 16 points in his last eight games, and the return of Zach Hyman could boost his line. Jack Roslovic’s emergence as a shoot-first forward (7.7 shots per 60, 14 points in 18 games) is a bright spot, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ impending return could stabilize the third line. But here’s the real question: is this enough to turn the season around?
Final Thoughts: A Call for Discussion
While there are reasons for cautious optimism, Edmonton’s offensive woes run deeper than bad luck. From McDavid’s decline to the bottom-six’s struggles and questionable defensive tactics, the team faces systemic challenges. But what do you think? Is this a temporary slump, or a sign of deeper issues? Are the Oilers still playoff contenders, or is this season already slipping away? Let us know in the comments—this debate is far from over.